Friday, 6 January 2012

Top two battle for Premiership supremacy

TOMORROW sees all bar two of the Principality Welsh Premiership teams in action with Church Bank in Llandovery hosting the game of the day as the league’s top two clash.
DAVID WILLIAMS looks ahead to each of the six games and gives his prediction of who will be taking the spoils come the final whistle.
Llandovery v Aberavon
I think it would be fair to say that had you asked people at the beginning of the season who would be the division’s top two on the second weekend of 2012, not too many would have predicted Llandovery and Aberavon.
But full credit must go to both clubs for not only getting to the top of the league but for staying there, particularly Aberavon as they have had the added focus of the British & Irish Cup to deal with.
Okay, Neath are only behind the Wizards on games won but the visitors to Llandovery tomorrow, like the All Blacks, have two games in hand over the west Walians.
Llandovery won the reverse fixture at the Talbot Athletic Ground in September and are looking for a third successive win following hard-fought victories against Pontypool and Carmarthen Quins.
Aberavon are also on a two-game winning streak, their victories at home against Pontypridd and away at Neath showing exactly what the side is made of this season.
Home advantage is in Llandovery’s favour but I’m predicting a narrow away win.
Verdict – Aberavon by five points
Carmarthen Quins v Neath
Up until Monday just gone, I would have fancied Quins to topple Neath at Carmarthen Park.
However, after watching them flop big time at St. Helen’s against Swansea, this should be an away win for Patrick Horgan’s men.
They have made four changes to the side that thrashed lowly Tonmawr last time out and should have enough to claim the four points, though I think the added bonus point will be a tough ask.
Quins have won four of their last six though and will be desperate to avoid a repeat of the first encounter between the sides in September when they were blitzed 44-5 at The Gnoll.
And, despite a 16-10 defeat to Llandovery on Boxing Day, Quins do boast a proud record on their home patch with successes over Swansea, Llanelli, Bridgend, Cardiff, Pontypool and Newport.
It will be a close one with the hosts eager to right the wrongs of the Swansea loss but I expect Neath to pull through.
Verdict – Neath by seven points
Pontypridd v Tonmawr
They may be six points off third-placed Neath in fourth but Pontypridd will inevitably take advantage of any slip-ups from the top three with what should be a comfortable win at home to Tonmawr.
Ponty strolled to a 46-6 win on the opening weekend of the season at the Whitworth Ground and although they have a British & Irish Cup quarter-final on the horizon in Leinster, the visit of Ton will give Dale McIntosh the chance to rotate his squad.
Harley Thomson comes in at full-back, James Howe at prop, Darran Harris at hooker and Jordan Sieniawski continues in the second row. In the backs, there is a welcome return for outside-half Simon Humberstone who makes his first start of the season after recovering from summer shoulder surgery.
Defeat at Aberavon on Monday is unlikely to affect the Ponty performance as they face a side still awaiting a first win of the campaign.
Verdict – Pontypridd by 25 points
Pontypool v Cross Keys
Arguably the form team in the Premiership when you look at results in all competitions, Keys have lost just once in their last eight and that was in the British & Irish Cup when they had already qualified for the last eight.
They have the chance to leapfrog Llanelli into fifth place tomorrow as the Scarlets’ match against Newport has been postponed, and I think they will.
Pooler have been in indifferent form at home this season, winning three and losing four, however, they pushed Llandovery all the way earlier this week.
If the corresponding fixture at Pandy Park on the first weekend of the season is anything to go by, both sets of fans should be in for an exciting game. Keys took that one 47-32.
Verdict – Cross Keys by six points
Bedwas v Bridgend
The Ravens’ solid start to the campaign has hit the buffers somewhat over recent weeks. In fact, they haven’t won in five, though there were two draws in that period.
It was only in November that Bedwas triumphed 19-13 at the Brewery Field so the Ravens will be keen to avoid the league double at the hands of their hosts.
If they do come out on top, and providing Bridgend don’t get a bonus point, Bedwas will overtake tomorrow’s opponents in the table.
The Bridgefield can be a tricky place to visit for any side and I see this going down to the wire. Bedwas have lost the last two but they could edge it.
Verdict – Bedwas by two points
Cardiff v Swansea
In years gone by, this fixture would have been the main attraction this weekend.
These days, though, the inconsistency of both clubs sees them way off the pace. However, the old rivals fought out a thriller in early October with Cardiff sneaking the win 28-27, so there is hope of an entertaining affair.
Swansea’s 29-12 success at home to Carmarthen Quins was just what the doctor ordered and even though their opponents never got out of the blocks, the Whites dominated up front and will hope to do the same at the Arms Park.
Jason Hyatt makes just the one change to the starting XV that took to the field on Monday with Nicky Thomas switching to the left wing in place of Eli Walker and James Dixon filling in at full-back.
Cardiff make eight changes to the side beaten by Newport last time out with six in the pack.
Because of their morale-boosting display against the Quins I’m going to stick my neck out and say a Swansea victory, but not by much.
Verdict – Swansea by five points

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