Friday 29 March 2013

Principality Premiership Predictions

If you take Pontypridd’s insurmountable lead out of the equation, it is all very close at the top of the Principality Premiership with five teams still with realistic hopes of bagging the two other play-off places. It is derby weekend in the Premiership with a few feisty clashes coming our way.

Newport v Cross Keys
This Friday night's Gwent derby showdown will be these two sides' fourth meeting this season, with each team claiming a win apiece as well as a draw. Cross Keys will see this as a must win match if they are to claim one of the play-off places. The Pandy Park side currently sit in the coveted third position, but with the likes of Llanelli and Llandovery breathing down their necks.
Discipline (or the lack thereof) has been a big issue for the Keys this season, and Greg Woods will have to rely on his men to not get caught up in the ferocious derby atmosphere if they are to avoid coming unstuck.
Newport on the other hand have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory more times than I can remember this season, but they will hope that they can put in a more complete performance tonight.
However, I think Cross Keys will be determined to do all they can to hold on to their play-off spot and I see them taking home the points this evening.
Verdict - Cross Keys by 10 points.
 Bridgend v Bedwas
To say Bridgend were woeful last time out against Swansea would be an understatement; to be up against 12 men and not be able to exploit that is criminal. Having said that, I have seen the Ravens a few times this season and have been impressed by certain areas of their game, but they really need to cut out silly errors and lack of clinical finishing in the opposition 22.
Bedwas have surpassed everyone’s expectations this season and if they can bag a play-off place, I don’t think there would be any Premiership followers that would begrudge them. They have five matches remaining, but those include a trip to Parc y Scarlets and a visit to the Bridge Field to face Pontypridd, so a good win here, then, would be just the tonic for some big games to come.
Verdict - Bedwas by 12 points.
Carmarthen Quins v Llandovery
The wild west derby is probably my Premiership game of the day - a loss for either of these teams will probably spell an end to their play-off push. The Quins, who have been solid all season, will be high on confidence having just secured a Cup semi-final, and had it not been for a lapse before Christmas at Dundee, they would have found themselves British and Irish Cup quarter-finalists too!
Llandovery started the season with a bang but looked to have reasserted their play-off ambitions at the start of the month, thumping Cross Keys at Church Bank. They were left clicking their heels last weekend as their match at Bridgend fell foul of the weather and so should be well prepared for tomorrow’s derby as a result.
This will undoubtedly be a tight contest, but I think Llandovery will just come out on top.
Verdict - Llandovery by 3 points
Swansea v Llanelli
The basement boys gave Llanelli a run for their money at Parc y Scarlets and the All Whites will be hoping to go one better at St Helens... - But I think it will be an almighty challenge! Llanelli were very impressive against Cardiff last week and with their Welsh Under 20 stars back and performing well, I think this should be a straightforward win for the men in red.
Verdict - Llanelli by 15 points.
 Neath v Aberavon
This Ospreylian derby clash will be a dress rehearsal for their Swalec Cup semi-final in two weeks' time, with the Gnoll hopefully full to the brim for this Easter Sunday set-to. Both these sides have turned their season around in recent weeks and seem to be coming into form at just the right time. Patrick Horgan’s men, who have been bolstered since Christmas with the return of key personnel, will start as favourites at the Gnoll, but the Wizards showed proper grit to dispatch Swansea last week and we must not forget the magnificent Jamie Davies, who past the 4000 points barrier in that match.
A lot will be said about winning psychological battles going into the Cup encounter but I tend to think the outcome of this match won’t have too much bearing on their Cup showdown in a couple of weeks' time. With regards to this weekend, though, I think Neath will have just enough in front of their home crowd to bag the points.
Verdict - Neath by 5 points.

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